Short post today– just wanted to share these charts that I made following this weekend’s Superbowl game between the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers. What I’ve done is grab estimated play-by-play win probabilities from here and rank plays according to how much win probability they added. Denver’s defense came out as the star of the show, with Manning’s offense only generating 5 of the top 25 most decisive plays. Plays in the top 25 include forced turnovers, critical third-down stops, and long returns on special teams.

Peyton Manning truly has his defense to thank for this Superbowl victory agains the heavily-favored Carolina Panthers who had a more even mix of offense and defense in their most decisive plays. Their largest spike in win probability came on a third down stop of Broncos running back C.J. Anderson late in the fourth quarter.

In conclusion, people who say things like “the best offense is a good defense” can say “I told you so” this year.